Detecting Anomalies in Time Series Data: Deciphering the Noise and Zoning in on the Signals

Anomaly detection for time series data with deep learning – identifying the “unknown unknowns” One of the most effective ways of detecting anomalies in time series data is via deep learning..This technique involves the following steps: Apply deep learning architecture to time series data: First, recurrent neural networks are applied to a series of input and output sets to establish the normal and accordingly predict the time series..This process is repeated until the predictions achieve a high level of accuracy..However, the models need to be updated regularly to accommodate changing trends and ensure accuracy and relevance..Long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks are great at remembering seasonal and other trends..Predict the next values from the latest available explanatory variables: Once the model has been trained, it can predict the next series based on real-time explanatory variables..Predict the upper and lower limits based on the standard deviation calculated for the latest predicted values: Once the values are predicted, the algorithm creates upper and lower limits at a specified confidence level..For instance, a 95% confidence level means that limits need to be at a “1.96 * standard deviation with respect to the mean on both sides” for a normal distribution..Identify and score anomalies: Whenever an actual perceived value falls beyond the predicted normal range, anomalies are marked – and scored based on their magnitude of deviation..A simple scoring methodology could be: Anomaly scores help users filter out anomalies that are less than a set threshold value (say 40), and also to prioritise them so that they can focus on more serious anomalies first and then move on to less serious ones..In case of critical metrics that involve huge expenses, the threshold value can be set to zero so that the tiniest of anomalies with the lowest of scores can be scrutinised for relevant action..Anomaly detection in industrial data is by no means a simple process given the scale at which it needs to happen, and also the highly dynamic nature of business in today’s world.. More details

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